On the wires…

• Trump says US will ‘leave’ Iran within weeks as Tehran says it has ‘necessary will’ to end war.
• Godongwana announces temporary R3 fuel levy cut to ease consumer pressure.
• Eastern Cape gets new police commissioner after 13-month vacancy.
• Kid Rock sparks US Army probe after helicopter flyby at his mansion.
• Bafana’s missed chances punished by Panama in Cape Twon clash.
• Italy fail to qualify for World Cup for third time in a row.

Quote of the day

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.” ― Noam Chomsky

 The indicators

Currency crackdown…

FXOne would like to thank Judy Padayachee from ABSA for her valued contribution to the currency comment this morning and would like to congratulate her on a stellar career at the bank.   

*Please note this technical analysis was issued yesterday, the 31^st of March, before the large movement of the currency overnight.

31 March 2026

The information below is a product of Sales and Trading, and does not constitute research. Note that this will be the last report published by me as I am retiring from Absa with effect from today. Thanks for all the interaction and support over the years. Adiós 

The selloff in the gold price has stalled ahead of the psychologically-important 4,000 level and near the 200-day moving average (currently near 4,110) with a feather cluster of support near 3,800-3,900 (trendlines), and given this plethora of support, we are looking for an uptrend in gold. Thus far, sideways action has taken place near the 4,500 level over the last five trading days, which is step in the right direction to forge a bottom. As for Brent crude, two clear key areas have been forged over the last couple of weeks. The 120 level has acted as resistance on two occasions over the last four weeks, while the 96-97 area has acted as support, providing key levels to watch in the new quarter. If Brent crude closes the week above 120 then the risks are that the 130-140 area could be reached first, our bias. However, we note the overbought signal on the weekly chart, and if Brent crude follows through below the 96-100 area first, then we are wrong and the 75 level could be reached, sooner than we allowed for. The USD has made a comeback with both the EUR and the GBP struggling to break above their 200-day moving average and range high, near the 1.1670-1.1680 area in the case of EURUSD and near the 1.3430-1.3485 area in the case of GBPUSD. Turning to USDBRL, we note that trading is taking place in a 5.11-5.34 range for the 10^th consecutive week, and the pair is currently trading near the middle of this range, and below its 200-day moving average. As such, it is too early to call a bottom in the USD.

In the case of USDZAR, we note the bearish seasonality for the USD in the month of April. Data from 1998 shows that the USD sold off in April in 18 of the 28 months, posting a 64% probability of a decline in the month. Indeed, with a monthly mean and median of -0.6% and -0.9%, respectively for the month of April we are watching the action near the 200-day moving average for direction. However, the pair has been holding above the 16.70-17 area and is currently peeking above the 200-day moving average (near 17.06 currently) signalling that the USD bulls have an edge. Indeed, following the USD uptrend initiated near 15.65 in January 2026 the risks are that the 17.50-17.55 area could be reached near term. That said, we note the divergence signal on the daily chart, and given that the trend following indicator is poised near previous turnaround levels, the risks are building for some reprieve for the ZAR bulls. As such, we would be looking for potential topping signals in the USD ahead of the 17.50-17.55 area. However, if the pair breaks above 17.55 then USD resistance could be found near 18.30-18.50 (previous turnaround level, Fibo retracement level) in H1 26 instead of H2 26. However, if the pair ends the week below 17 then it is too early to call for an end to the ZAR bullish leg, and the 15.65-16 area could be reached first. Longer-term, a move below 17 is seen as corrective as the long-term trend remains bearish for the ZAR.

EURZAR: for EURUSD, following the aggressive downturn this month, the pair is poised near 1.1460 and the low of the 1.1390-1.2100 is under threat. This range has been in place for 10 months, and these levels are key going into the new quarter. approached. Indeed, the 200-day moving near 1.1676 has been the nemesis of the EUR bulls for the last four weeks, and while holding below here the risks are that the 1.1390-1.1410 area could be breached, earlier than we allowed for. A drop below 1.1390-1.1400 could signal an end to the wide 1.1390-1.2100 range trade. Ultimately, the pair has been trading in a wider range of 0.9530-1.2555 since 2015, and below 1.1390 could trigger a much bigger selloff in the EUR to 1.1000, and lower in 2026.  While a push above the moving average could be our cue that an upward leg is underway, with potential targets near 1.2100-1.2200, before the downward leg below 1.1390. In the case of EURZAR, the 200-day moving average has also been key. The pair has been trading in to-and-fro mode (19.34-19.90) for the last seven trading days, holding near the 200-day moving average (near 19.90), and just below the psychologically-important 20 level. Furthermore, a potential channel boundary could be forming near 20.20, and this cluster of ZAR support near 20-20.20 could be key near term. Despite the divergence signal on the daily chart, a push above this cluster could nullify this warning signal, and the bearish-ZAR trend initiated in March 2026 could gain momentum to reach the 21 level first. While if the pair dips below 19.34 then the 19-19.10 area could be tested first, and the 18.50-18.65 area could be under threat.

GBPZAR: similarly for GBPUSD, the 200-day moving average (near 1.3426 currently) has curbed the GBP bulls recently. Indeed, the pair dipped below the four-week range of 1.3215-1.3485 yesterday, to put the GBP bulls on the back foot and shift the focus to 1.3000. Ultimately, the wider 1.3000-1.3900 range has defined the moves since June 2025, and a decisive breach of 1.3000 would be our cue that the 1.2700 level could be reached first, earlier than we allowed for, before the GBP bulls could get some reprieve. While a break above the 1.3426-1.3485 area (200-day moving average and range high) is needed to remove the bearish threat, and open up targets near 1.3900-1.4000 first before a decisive break below 1.3000. As for GBPZAR, we note similar to-and-fro action near the 200-day moving average (currently near 22.88), and near the range high of 22.95. However, the 22.30-22.40 area has been support for the GBP in each of the last three years. As such, we have key levels at 22.30 and 22.85 to watch this week for direction. Longer term, the pair has traded in a 22.30-25.50 range from May 2023 to October 2025, and while holding above the former the ZAR bulls are on the back foot, and the 22.95 level could be under threat, with targets near the 24 level over the next three months., earlier than we allowed for. While if the 22.30 level is breached then our call for a drop to 21.30 first has been reinvigorated, and thereafter we would look for a push to 24.

AUDZAR: for AUDUSD, the break below the six-week range of 0.6895-0.7190 on Thursday put the AUD bulls on the back foot, and our focus has shifted to the 0.6500-0.6678 area (previous turnaround levels and 200-day moving average) as potential targets. Thereafter, we would look for oversold AUD signals, and a potential reprieve for the AUD bulls. We have been targeting the 0.7300-0.7400 area (retracement level and high from February 2021), but this area could be reached in H2 26 instead of H1 26, i.e. earlier than we allowed for. In the case of AUDZAR, the 12 handle (near 50% retracement level) proved a tough hurdle last week. However, it is too early to call a top in the AUD. A break below 11.50 (previous turnaround level) is needed to signal a reprieve for the ZAR bulls with targets near 11.20-11.50. That said, the long-term targets remain bearish for the ZAR. Indeed, the turnaround in AUDZAR near the trendline (near 10.90) in January 2026 has confirmed the larger bearish tone for the ZAR, and the 13-13.50 area could be reached over the next 12-24 months.

CNHZAR: the CNH is holding within a 6.82-6.95 trading range against the USD going into the sixth consecutive week. We are watching the action near 6.85 and 7.00 to signal whether the 6.70 or 7.20 level could be reached next. Ultimately, the pair has been trading in a wide to-and-fro pattern (6.70-7.45) since January 2023, and we believe that further to-and-fro action could be experienced this year, and both the 6.70 and 7.20 levels could be reached in 2026. However, a break above 7.00 would be our cue that we are wrong, and 7.20, and higher could be reached first. As for CNHZAR, the pair has been trading between 2.40 and 2.50 for 12 consecutive trading days, providing key levels to watch near term. Following the turnaround near the diagonal boundary near 2.25 earlier this month, we believe that the mega trend is bearish for the ZAR over the next three-to-five years, with targets near 2.88 (upper boundary). However, for the near-term we are looking for some reprieve for the ZAR bulls. The CNH is overbought on the weekly chart, and we note the two weekly stalemate patterns, which are early warning signals that the CNH bulls are losing traction. Follow through below 2.40 would be our cue with targets near 2.25-2.30. While a break above 2.50 would signal that we are wrong, and that the 2.55-2.60 area could be reached first before the ZAR bulls could get a reprieve.

Note: for additional commentary and levels see the attached file. Source of all charts: LSEG, Absa

Disclaimer:

This communication (“this communication”) has been provided by the corporate and investment banking division of Absa Bank Limited a registered bank in the Republic of South Africa, a subsidiary of Absa Group Limited, with company registration number: 1986/004794/06 and with its registered office at: Absa Towers East, 3rd Floor, 170 Main Street, Absa Towers West, 15 Troye Street, Johannesburg 2001, Republic of South Africa (“Absa”). Absa is regulated by the South African Reserve Bank and is a registered financial services and credit provider. Absa has provided this communication for information purposes only and you must not regard this as a prospectus for any security or financial product or transaction. This communication is from an Absa Sales and/or Trading desk and is not a product of the Absa Research department. This communication has not been produced, reviewed or approved by the Absa Research Department, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of research. The views in this communication are not a personal recommendation and do not take into account whether any product or transaction is suitable for any particular investor. This message is subject to the provisions at: http://www.absa.co.za/disclaimer. This communication is confidential and no part of it may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without the prior written permission of Absa. By messaging with Absa you agree to the provisions of this disclaimer.

On the radar…

Did you know?

Kind regards

Luke Rosenberg