Good morning,

  

On the wires…
Iran planning to boycott ceasefire talks over ‘unreasonable and unrealistic’ US demands Japan braces for 3m tsunamis after 7.4-magnitude earthquake strikes UCT, UP shine in global rankings in accounting, finance Chinese man sentenced to year in jail for trying to smuggle thousands of ants out of Kenya Cape Town clinic staff allegedly selling patient folders, sparking Sassa fraud probe West Ham hold on to a draw to officially relegate Wolves from the Premier League
Quote of the day

 

“It is useless to try to hold a person to anything he says while he’s madly in love, drunk, or running for office.” — Shirley MacLaine

The indicators

Indicator  Price Change Ranges   Indicator Price  Change $ / R 16.38 -3 16.20 – 16.50 Gold $ 4 775 -20 € / R 19.28 -2 19.15 – 19.45 Brent $ 96 Unchanged £ / R 22.14 -2 22.00 – 22.30 DOW 49 442 -0.01% AUD/R 11.72 -1 11.60 – 11.90 JSE Top 40 112 243 -1.09% € / $ 1.1774 +0.0017   $ index* 98.13 +0.02 UST 10 Year 4.25% -0.02%     Bitcoin $ 75 984 +1 168 Source: Reuters/ Investing.com *The $ Dollar Index measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of 6 foreign currencies including EUR, JPY, CAD, GBP, SEK and CHF.

Currency crackdown…

The main currency story remains global risk sentiment, with the rand trading as a classic risk-sensitive emerging-market currency – reacting quickly to shifts in Middle East tensions, oil prices and broader dollar demand. There was barely any movement yesterday, as uncertainty over further US-Iran peace talks before the expiration of a ceasefire this week, has kept traders to the sidelines. There is a Senate confirmation hearing for President Donald Trump’s new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for later today. As always, a new Fed chair and their opening remarks/sentiment will be watched by the world with keen interest. Warsh has reiterated that the Fed must be ‘largely’ independent of political influence but should also remain focused on its primary goals.    His independence from the government will be a key point of focus, especially amid repeated calls by Trump for more interest rate cuts. While Warsh has supported lower rates in the past, he has also criticized the Fed’s asset buying operations and favoured a leaner balance sheet. His nomination by Trump in late-January was viewed as less dovish than markets were expecting, so this will be an intriguing space. There are also some economic releases due, although I wouldn’t expect any of them to shoot the lights out necessarily.   The bigger picture is a bit more constructive. Despite our small daily wobbles, the rand has still been stronger over the past month and year. South Africa’s fiscal backdrop has continually improved, helped by firmer commodity prices and signs that government debt may be peaking. We do just desperately need oil prices to manoeuvre back down, as the inflation which comes with them will throw an unnecessary spanner in the works. There isn’t much else by way of news, and so it’s all up to the US and Iran to sort something out here – Holding thumbs.

On the radar…

ZAR – Business Confidence EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment USD – Fed Waller Speaks ·         ZAR – SARB Monetary Policy Review ·         EUR – ECB Members Speak ·         USD – Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Did you know?

The longest voluntary breath hold underwater is 29 minutes and 3 seconds.

 

All the best,