G morning,

On the wires…

• Trump intervention sparks World Cup storm as FIFA clears Balogun
• Ali Khamenei’s funeral begins in Iran, successor not seen
• Magnum wins bid against SA ice cream copycat brand
• Nigeria threatens action after 2 citizens killed by SA Police
• Ten-man England hang on to beat Mexico 3-2 in last 16 thriller: Brazil exit after defeat to Norway
• Communication error names the wrong Bok Damian as Man of the Match against England

Quote of the day

“My wife and I were happy for 20 years. Then we met.” – Rodney Dangerfield

The indicators

Currency crackdown…

On Friday, the rand had a subdued day prompted by the close of the US markets for Independence Day. After opening at the 16.20 level, the rand managed to trade slightly lower, but was contained in a narrow range, eventually closing at 16.23. Although the $ struggled with worse than expected labour numbers, and the rand getting better than expected local PMI figures (signalling expansion again), it remained subdued into the close and never managed to make a more convincing move towards the 16.00 handle.

Indicators: Although the $ showed some weakness on Friday, it has clawed some of those losses back. Equity markets in Asia are mixed this morning, with the KOSPI 0.5% lower (tech indicator). European and US markets futures indicators are also mixed, with volatility measurements lower. This must translate to subdued markets again through the day (economic releases might impact). Gold is lower, while Brent remains unchanged. US Treasury yields have also found a comfortable level, for now. Bitcoin has made decent gains and after month end ETF buying support looks better above the phycological level of $60 000. Nothing really for the rand to take a lead on.

Locally, we have little to make an impact on the rand. Internationally, we have some influential economic figures being released. Any changes in the Middle East tight rope will have an impact. The rand will continue to track the 3 majors currency movements but is expected to remain range bound (see range above in indicators) for the immediate future. Longer term, I am seeing more opinions regarding the food security impact of El Nino and warning of additional inflationary pressures. Keep an eye out, as that will prompt conservative rate outlooks and have an impact on global growth.

On the radar…

• CHF – Unemployment rate
• EUR – Sentix Investor Confidence
• USD – Global Services PMI
• USD – ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

• All – US-Iran War
• EUR – PPI
• EUR – Retail sales
• EUR and USD- ECB and Fed speakers

Did you know?

Before 1926, the Kruger National Park was known as the Sabie Game Reserve.