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On the wires… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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“Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” – John F. Kennedy | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The indicators | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Currency crackdown… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FXOne would like to thank Warrick Butler from Standard Bank for his valued contribution to the dose this morning. Good morning “Why can’t you trust an atom? Because they make up literally everything” Current USDZAR level: 16.3600/16.3700 Rand range yesterday: 16.2650-16.4750 and NY close: 16.4100 I had written much of the commentary below, yesterday morning, but with the increase in tensions in Iran/Hormuz my morning started off with a rather distressing bang. Not the nice kind as newlyweds could allude to unfortunately. The US has started a war they can’t win, and they have rigged a game they didn’t win (World Cup Football or Soccer if you live in the land of stars and stripes). They have a president who has used his position to finally make a trading profit (dare I say “dodgy”) that none of his businesses ever managed, before his position of power. He must have taken notes from Ms Pelosi. A bit like the one-liner above, Trump could be an atom. There is a wonderful meme going around at the moment with the Ugandan FM talking about corruption and it being ok if you are part of it, but not ok if you are left out and it feels like this is a global issue these days. We used to laugh about Zuma and Juju et al but quite honestly, they are just a couple in a crowd. The market has been dead this week and maybe it has been begging for a headline to add some impetus, not that a great deal has happened in the Rand space. A little blip to 16.3500 overnight as the headlines hit the wires but we find ourselves back in the 16.20’s this morning. Elsewhere there is more of an effect, although in itself still, muted, on global financial markets with oil about 3% higher and UST yields slightly weaker. I guess people are waiting for the Iran response before reacting further. Hopefully what it means is that today we have a little volatility because it has been a wholly uninteresting week so far. The general global backdrop has not changed, however. Stock markets are still elevated by the AI greed trade and inflation is still sticky. Private credit levels are still a cause for concern, but it seems like investors are happy to ignore these underlying threats. Things I am still watching are 2-year UST’s and the 4.20/25% level. A break will be significant in my view. Our equity market is grinding lower and the low on the 23rd of March is looming large at 106,179. The charts that I have included over the past few week’s commentaries are still very much in play and the levels I am watching are still very relevant. Gold and UST’s look very close to breaking key levels but one can’t pre-empt those breaks just yet. The Rand is a trading very well with all that is going on. Domestically there are a couple of issues building which may have a detrimental effect on the currency. The local electioneering is starting but there is also a fiscal issue that is brewing, with the finance department blocking funding to delinquent municipalities (so basically all of them excluding the Western Cape). I am not sure this will be a long-term thing, as it does not help one specific political party, but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Overall, when there are no headlines, the Rand is boring to trade with the usual terms of trade flows dominating. When the Orange Geriatric shoots his mouth off, then it becomes unplayable as a market maker. The range remains intact with 15.85/15.90 being the major support level, whilst 16.45 and 16.65 are the main levels to watch above. Good luck and have a great day ahead Support levels – 16.18/15, 16.00/15.95, 15.8000 Resistance levels – 16.3500, 16.4500, 16.60/65, 16.8000, 16.9400, 17.00/05, 17.2500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
On the radar… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Did you know? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The national flag with the most colours in it is Belize (1981), with 12. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kind regards
Sibusiso Khalishwayo
