G morning,

On the wires…

·        Passengers foil bid to crash Dubai- Tel Aviv flight

·        Tennessee death row inmate survives execution attempt

·        Russia sends nuclear warning to NATO as tensions rise in the Baltic

·        SA set for highest fuel prices ever

·        Bafana thrash Eritrea 5-0 in Cairo

·        Proteas succumb to Aussie bowlers in Potch

Quote of the day

“The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge” — Bertrand Russell

The indicators

Currency crackdown…

Yesterday, the Rand found some support from SA economic releases through the day improving by 10c (M3, trade balance and credit extension). It managed to get back to the 16.30 level, before US economic releases spiked the $. The rand closed the session at 16.,41 but firmly on the back foot, as expectations of another Fed interest rate increase dropped from 70% to 40%. The rand has opened well weaker today with reports of limited liquidity being one of the reasons for the weakening action. Higher inflation levels from fuel prices (elevated Brent prices, still going this morning) seem to be bring a reality check to emerging markets, as they possibly should have done a while back.

Indicators look mixed. US 10-year Treasury yields are higher again (highest since 2002). Brent has moved higher and sits below the crucial $100 level. Brent price makes interest rates look higher for longer. US equity markets were mixed last night with only the Nasdaq in the green. Asian markets are looking good this morning. The Brent price increase has led to a slightly lower gold price. Bitcoin also looking stable (?), suspected to be month end ETF buying. No real convincing clues, besides the move of the $ and US Treasury yields. Both are higher after better-than-expected economic releases. The resilience of the US economy continues to surprise.

The economic calendar is always loaded at month end, so we might some more volatility through the day, although Hong Kong and China are closed today. SA figures will be interesting to observe as we head closer to the SA mini budget (October 21). The rand is hugging close to the top of the recent bands for all 3 majors, so no lunching today, maybe a Mr D straight to your desk. Not a great way to start the month for importers.

On the radar…

·        ZAR –ALL – Iran/ US peace attempts

·        ZAR – Manufacturing PMI

·        ZAR – Vehicle sales

·        CHF – CPI and Retail sales

·        USD – Balance sheet

·        EUR – Manufacturing PMI

·        EUR – Unemployment rate

·        USD – Jobless claims

·        USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI

·        ALL – Central Bank speakers for all majors

Did you know?

There are only 85 days left until Christmas.