On the wires…

• More than R630 million in grants vanish without a trace at ETDP Seta.
• Iran says Hormuz open to all but ‘enemy-linked’ ships.
• All 5 bodies trapped underground at Ekapa mine recovered.
• World Bank sanctions three PwC units in Africa for fraud.
• Man City sink Arsenal as Pep trophy legacy continues.
• DeChambeau, Crushers delight Steyn City to beat Rahm, Southern Guards for LIV Golf SA title.

Quote of the day

“Most people are afraid of failure. I love failure because it tells me where to go next.”— Bryson DeChambeau

The indicators

Currency crackdown…

FXOne would like to thank Judy Padayachee from ABSA for her valued contribution to the currency comment this morning.

*Please note this report was issued on Friday, the 20^th of March.

20 March 2026

The information below is a product of Sales and Trading, and does not constitute research.

The selloff in the gold price has taken place near the 6,000 level, and the next cluster of support could be near 3,900-4,000 (psychologically-important level, trendlines, and 200-day and 52-week moving averages), where we would be looking for bottoming potential. Although we are wary of the potential topping signal on the quarterly chart, as well as the overbought momentum signal, in the absence of a decisive break below 4,000, the larger bull trend in the gold price is not likely to be damaged, in our view. As for Brent crude, we note the aggressive push above the 100 level (range high and psychologically-important level) over the last two weeks, as well as the inability to break above 120 for the second consecutive week, providing key levels to watch near term. If Brent crude closes the week above 120, a likely scenario then the risks are that the 130-140 area could be reached first. Before another attempt to test the 97-100 area. Both the EUR and GBP enjoyed some recovery against the USD yesterday, but a decisive break above the 200-day moving average near 1.1676 and 1.3436, is needed to signal that the bulls have the legs to resume the upward leg in the wide multi-quarter range trade. In the case of USDZAR, similarly the ZAR bulls got some reprieve yesterday and the 200-day moving average near 17.09 acted as support for a drop below the 17 handle. Ultimately, the ZAR has been experiencing aggressive daily moves in both directions over the last three weeks, and has largely been held captive between the 16 and 17 handles. If the pair ends the week above the 17 level then the risks are that the wide 16.70-20 range, which defined the moves in 2023-2025 could be reinstated and the 18.40-18.50 area could be reached in H1 26 instead of H2 26. While if the pair ends the week below the 17 handle, then it is too early to call for an end to the ZAR bullish leg, and the 15.65-16 area could be reached first.

EURZAR: for EURUSD, we note some tentative gains over the last five days ahead of the 1.1390-1.1400 area, and while holding above here our focus is shifting to the 200-day moving average near 1.1676 currently. An eight-month range (1.1390-1.2100) has defined the moves since June 2025, and a push above the moving average could be our cue that an upward leg is underway, with potential targets near 1.2100-1.2200, before a downward leg. We note that the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are poised to crossover, similar to Q4 23-Q4 24 period and this could reinforce our case for to-and-fro action. While a push below 1.1390-1.1400 could signal an end to the wide 1.1390-1.2100 range trade. Ultimately, the pair has been trading in a wider range of 0.9530-1.2555 since 2015, and below 1.1390 could trigger a much bigger selloff in the EUR to 1.1000 in 2026. In the case of EURZAR, we note the divergence signal ahead of the 19.65-19.70 area, and if the pair ends the week below here then it is too early to call a bottom in the EUR. As such we are watching the 19.10 and 19.70 levels into the new week. As a drop below 19.10 would be our cue that the ZAR recovery leg has been reinstated with targets near 18.50-18.65. However, a sustained push above 19.70 would be our cue that the EUR has completed a base, earlier than we allowed for, and that the ZAR bull trend has reversed, with potential targets near the 20.50-20.75 area in 2026.

GBPZAR: the GBP enjoyed an aggressive recovery against the USD yesterday, and peeked above the 200-day moving average near 1.3436. Despite trading below the moving average this morning, while the pair holds above the low of the 1.3000-1.3900 range, which has defined the moves since June 2025 our bias is for a push higher. If the pair ends the week back above 1.3370 then the risks are for a push back to 1.3600, and higher. While a decisive breach of 1.3000 would be our cue that the 1.2700 level could be reached first, earlier than we allowed for, before the GBP bulls could get some reprieve. As for GBPZAR, the pair has been trading around the 22.30-22.40 area for the last five days, and just below the 200-day moving average near 22.90, key levels to watch near term. If the pair ends the week below 22.40 then we would look for a test of 22.14, to target 21.30. While if the pair ends the week above 22.40 then the wide 22.30-25.50 range from 2023 has been reinstated, and the 200-day moving average could be tested in the new week, with longer term targets near 24.

AUDZAR: for AUDUSD, the recent selloff in the AUD has been confined to a six-week trading range of 0.6895-0.7190, and it’s too early to call for a top in the AUD. That said, we note that the AUD topped out near 0.7160 in January 2023 and is currently trading below these levels. As such, we are watching the boundaries of this trading range for direction. We have been targeting the 0.7300-0.7400 area (retracement level and high from February 2021) in H1 26, before topping out. However, if the pair ends the week below the 0.7000 level again then we are wrong and the 0.6500-0.6600 area could be reached sooner than we allowed for. In the case of AUDZAR, the ZAR reached its worst level since April 2025, before posting some tentative gains in late-trade yesterday. Notwithstanding the divergence signal on the daily chart, while holding above the 11.45-11.50 area (52-week moving average and previous turnaround level) the ZAR bulls remain on the back foot, which has been the case YTD. The 12.20-12.25 area (turnaround level from April 2025 and Fibo level) could be reached before the ZAR bulls could get a reprieve back to 11.50.

CNHZAR: the CNH has maintained a trading range of 6.82-6.95 against the USD for the fourth consecutive week, not too far off from its best level since H1 23, near 6.80. We are watching the action near 6.80 and 7.00 to signal whether the 6.70 or 7.20 level could be reached next. Ultimately, the pair has been trading in a wide to-and-fro pattern (6.70-7.45) since January 2023, and we expect that further to-and-fro action could be experienced this year, and both the 6.70 and 7.20 levels could be reached in 2026. However, a break above 7.00 would be our cue that we are wrong, and 7.20, and higher could be reached first. As for CNHZAR, after the ZAR bears charged out of the starting gates last week, the selloff toned down to to-and-fro action near the 200-day and 52-week moving averages (near 2.41-2.44 area) this week. We note the divergence signal on the daily charts and with weekly momentum poised near previous turnaround levels, we are watching the action near the moving averages for direction. A move back below 2.40 is needed to reinstate the ZAR bulls and open up the 2.25-2.34 area. However, while holding above 2.40 the risks are that our H2 26 target area of 2.47-2.50 (50% retracement level) could be within reach over the next few weeks, earlier than we allowed for. Ultimately, we believe that the 2.60 level could be reached in 2026.

Note: for additional commentary and levels see the attached file. Source of all charts: LSEG, Absa

Disclaimer:

This communication (“this communication”) has been provided by the corporate and investment banking division of Absa Bank Limited a registered bank in the Republic of South Africa, a subsidiary of Absa Group Limited, with company registration number: 1986/004794/06 and with its registered office at: Absa Towers East, 3rd Floor, 170 Main Street, Absa Towers West, 15 Troye Street, Johannesburg 2001, Republic of South Africa (“Absa”). Absa is regulated by the South African Reserve Bank and is a registered financial services and credit provider. Absa has provided this communication for information purposes only and you must not regard this as a prospectus for any security or financial product or transaction. This communication is from an Absa Sales and/or Trading desk and is not a product of the Absa Research department. This communication has not been produced, reviewed or approved by the Absa Research Department, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of research. The views in this communication are not a personal recommendation and do not take into account whether any product or transaction is suitable for any particular investor. This message is subject to the provisions at: http://www.absa.co.za/disclaimer. This communication is confidential and no part of it may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without the prior written permission of Absa. By messaging with Absa you agree to the provisions of this disclaimer.

On the radar…

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