Good morning “Today, I asked my phone “Siri, why am I still single?” and it activated the front camera.”. Current USDZAR level: 16.3400/16.3500 Rand range yesterday: 16.3000-16.4300 and NY close: 16.3700 I finally think the market has hit peak-headline exhaustion. This week we have seen quite a few differing headlines about the war in Iran and the opening/blockading of the Hormuz Strait, but markets have by-and-large been pedestrian. If anything, the focus is now starting to shift to macro data again and the impact the war is going to have on future interest rate decisions by central banks, specifically the Fed. Oil has been trading above $85/barrel for the past 7 weeks now and the longer it stays above this level, the more of an impact on inflation there will be. So even though the war has subsided, there are other concerns that will drive price action over the coming weeks. There are talks underway for an extension to the ceasefire but that just means we sit in another period of uncertainty with the oil price elevated. There are still a lot of variables at play and with a guy like Trump at the helm, not many will be brave enough to predict what’s next. The way I am playing this market is to try and fade any massive knee-jerk moves in any direction. So, if the Rand gets hammered in a few sessions to anywhere close to something with a 17-handle on it, the this is an opportunity to sell some dollars, given the reality that at those levels, there is a lot of risk-aversion built it. At the same time, the Rand at current levels has a lot of good news in it and being all bullish about the world is maybe not the best risk-reward. I guess this is how a lot of the market sees it to, given the Rattler’s inability to strengthen much below 16.25/30 despite the general dollar weakness. Keeping positions lean and mean is still the ideal situation and focus on economic data and specifically price pressures are at the forefront of my mind. Good luck and have a great day ahead Support levels – 16.30/27, 16.00/15.95, 15.8000, 15.6500, 15.5000 Resistance levels – 16.5200, 16.6500, 18.8000, 16.9400, 17.00/05, 17.2500 |