G morning, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
On the wires… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Quote of the day | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
“When I was a kid my parents moved a lot, but I always found them.”— Rodney Dangerfield | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The indicators | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Currency crackdown… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
On Friday, the month of July rolled out quietly with markets showing limited moves. The rand opened at the 16.50 level, topped out at 16.63 and then found some Middle East talk support to trade lower, eventually closing at the 16,.55 level. Friday’s SA economic releases have had a limited effect, as all eyes remain fixed on the price of Brent, Gold and the $. We open the new month with a slight improvement in the ZAR, inching below the 16.50 level against the $ and 19.00 against the Euro. Indicators, besides Gold, are all supportive. Brent is lower again and looking at the $80/ barrel level. Lower inflation possibilities will assist Gold in the longer term but also settle the local and international bond yields . The US 10-year yield traded higher again, despite the lower oil price but it’s the ongoing uncertainty around the war that is upsetting a more confident long term price reaction. Yoyo and rollercoaster better describe the immediate issue. US equity markets looked solid on Friday, but Asia is mixed this morning with the tech indicator KOSPI again showing a decent loss (- 5.7%). US equity futures are showing a better opening this afternoon, so unless we have a fall out in the present US/ Iran negotiations or another tech scare, the market looks green for go. We have been here before so don’t put all your eggs in one basket. On a separate note- Bitcoin is lower, despite month end ETF fund support. Reasons analysts have identified is, weaker than expected earnings for industry sector related companies, as well as a wallet compromise of the Canadian crypto wallet firm Coinkite Inc (Coldcard). The hack involved the siphoning of an estimated $90 million of Bitcoin from 4 500 wallets. An added reason for the concern is that “cold” wallets are considered as the safest place a trader can store their crypto. Poor performance of the sector included the observation that crypto has been struggling with a prolonged exodus of investor interest in 2026 due to ongoing Bitcoin losses. Food for thought!! We have a plethora of manufacturing releases today which should give a decent indication of order books and economic activity. Keep an eye open, as I think they might influence the market while it awaits some news on Iran/ US talks. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
On the radar… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Did you know? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
August was originally called S3xtilis (sixth) in the Roman calendar and was renamed in 8 B.C. to honour Emperor Augustus. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Have an awesome August!
Wayne Rosenberg
