Good morning,

On the wires…

• Parliamentary inquiry into PIC in the offing
• 2026 local government elections: D-Day for eligible voters to register
• Meta fined $567m in largest child safety ruling against social media giant
• Seven dead, including gunman, at Thailand school shooting
• UEFA maintains boycott threat as CAF backs Infantino
• RGR OPENER: Stormers playing to save the traditional tour

Quote of the day

When we strive to become better than we are, everything around us becomes better too.” – Paulo Coelho

The indicators

Currency crackdown…

FXOne would like to thank CHAT GPT Pro for its unbiased contribution to the dose this morning.

Global Market Wrap

• Global markets remained volatile this week, with sentiment largely driven by geopolitical developments and movements in oil prices.
• Signs of progress towards a possible diplomatic resolution to the US–Iran conflict helped ease some pressure on crude prices and supported risk appetite.
• US equities had a strong week overall, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting solid gains despite some weakness towards the end of the week.
• US Treasury yields moved higher again on Thursday as markets continued to weigh the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices.
• Precious metals remained supportive, with gold and platinum holding firm during the week.

Rand Performance

• The rand strengthened over the course of the week, moving from around R16.52/$ on Monday to approximately R16.34/$ on Friday morning.
• This represents a weekly gain of just over 1% against the US dollar.
• Improved global risk sentiment, softer oil-price pressures and firm precious-metal prices provided support for the local currency.
• The rand remained primarily driven by international developments, with relatively limited domestic catalysts during the week.

South African Data

• The S&P Global South Africa PMI edged lower to 50.3 in July from 50.5 previously, but remained marginally above the 50-point level separating expansion from contraction.
• South Africa’s foreign-exchange reserves eased to approximately $73.45 billion from $74.11 billion.
• Neither release had a significant impact on the rand, with global factors continuing to dominate local currency movements.

Key Focus Today

• Attention now turns to the US non-farm payrolls report due later today.
• A weaker-than-expected employment print could weigh on the dollar and US yields, potentially allowing the rand to strengthen further.
• Conversely, a stronger labour-market reading could support the dollar and place renewed pressure on emerging-market currencies.

Looking Ahead

• The R16.30–R16.50/$ range remains the key short-term area to monitor.
• Next week’s domestic calendar is busier, with South African unemployment, manufacturing production and business-confidence data due.
• These releases should provide more local direction for the rand following a week dominated largely by global market developments.

On the radar…

• USD – Average Hourly Earnings
• USD – Nonfarm Payrolls
• All – US-Iran War

• USD – Unemployment Rate
• USD – FOMC Member

Did you know?

Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the Isle of Man all have claims to having the oldest parliament in history, all of which were founded in the 9th and 10th centuries.