Good morning,

On the wires…

·       ‘Never be scared to kill’: Malema hate speech doesn’t disqualify him from JSC – Didiza

·       Africa’s biggest IPO exposes continent’s cross-border investing barriers

·       US to livestream Army firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter, Pentagon says

·       US announces effort to disrupt hacking infrastructure run by China’s Integrity Tech Group

·       ‘Iron sharpening iron’: SA football wins when Sundowns, Pirates collide, says Mokwena

·       New Zealand’s Chapman, Foulkes ruled out of India T20s through injury

Quote of the day

“Ah coffee. The sweet balm by which we shall accomplish today’s tasks.” — Holly Black

The indicators

Currency crackdown…

FXOne would like to thank CHAT GPT Pro for its unbiased contribution to the dose this morning.

• The rand found some breathing room this week, stabilising after the recent spell of weakness. A quieter dollar helped, with the local currency holding up even after disappointing manufacturing data. With that being said, elevated global borrowing costs and unsettled sentiment remain a difficult backdrop for a more sustained recovery.

• The US interest-rate outlook remained a key driver. This week’s Fed minutes suggested another hike before year-end is still likely, but officials are in no rush to move in October. That gives markets some breathing room, although it leaves little room for expectations of easier US monetary policy in the near term.

• Oil was back in the spotlight, with Brent briefly moving above $105 a barrel as Middle East tensions and potential US production disruptions raised supply concerns. For South Africa, the risk is further pressure on fuel prices, transport costs and ultimately the consumer, particularly if the rand cannot offset some of the increase.

• Locally, the SARB reinforced its cautious stance. Its Monetary Policy Review highlighted the risk of energy costs feeding into broader inflation. Our reading is that weaker growth alone will struggle to make the case for lower rates while these price pressures persist.

• The saving grace remains some improvement in South Africa’s fiscal picture, with stronger revenue collection and mining revenues offering support ahead of the mini-budget. For now, though, our view is that the rand still needs help from the global side: softer oil, calmer bond markets and less dollar strength would make a recovery easier to sustain.

On the radar…

·       ZAR – ALL – Iran/ US peace attempts

• EUR – ECB’s Schnabel Speaks

Did you know?

The word “lunatic” originates from the belief that mental illnesses were influenced by changes in the moon’s phases.