G morning, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
On the wires… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Quote of the day | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” — Mark Twain | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The indicators | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Currency crackdown… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Friday currency trading and movement was a non- event, with the rand trading in a 6c band. Markets are still being led by geopolitical events, and with the US closed today, we are likely to see a restrictive market movement again. All indicators have had minimal movement over the weekend, with no real obvious clues for emerging markets. Trading bands are still the way to go.
The major news over the weekend was the “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia, claimed to be in effect by Trump. The deal states that Ukraine will halt drone attacks on Russian refineries in return for Russia releasing diesel supplies into global markets. Amazing how the US can manage international sanctions when it suits their agenda, and the ability of the Republicans to make this move ahead of mid- term elections! It must also make you question the real state of global diesel shortages, and the actual, and eventual impact the Middle East situation is going to have on inflation and the global economy. Concerning indeed! The ceasefire has surprisingly overshadowed the increasing tensions in Saudi Arabia after attacks by the Houthis over the weekend.
Brent is higher this morning, but only marginally. Anything above $90/ barrel will continue to apply pressure on inflation, so we are not close to being out of the woods. The IMF meetings begin today, and the economic community await resets by the IMF on growth expectations, with broad adjustments expected. SA’s GDP outlook will also be reset, and this could potentially lead to a bigger “risk off” scenario, so remain vigilant of top side levels. In addition, SA has a light economic calendar this week (manufacturing cannot be ignored) , but the US will release PPI, CPI which will ruffle feathers.
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On the radar… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Did you know? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mark Twains real name was Samuel Clemens. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Have a grand week.
Wayne Rosenberg
